Heat wave, record temperatures are harbingers of a warmer world

It’s blazing hot, with temperatures busting records all over the country. Newark reached 108 degrees Friday, Brick City’s hottest day on record. So where are those climate change deniers now? You know, the ones who snort and sneer at Al Gore whenever temperatures drop and a blizzard dumps a ton of snow on us during the winter? This will show ‘em. Global warming is here ... right?

Not so fast, says David Robinson, Rutgers professor and New Jersey state climatologist.

"You can’t take one day and attribute it to global warming. As a climatologist, you have to look at the long term," he says. Exceptionally hot summers over multiple decades, not just one or two years, have to be considered. He did allow that heat waves are coming more often now.

Extreme weather naturally fascinates Robinson and other climate experts, who are in demand to explain it all. He rattles off temperatures of the extraordinary day like a baseball fan rattling off player stats: Newark at 108, previous high 105. New Brunswick hit 105, ties with last July 6 as the second highest day ever. "New Brunswick has records going back to 1893, the record is 106, so we missed by a degree."

The record for the state is 110, set in Runyon in Middlesex County on July 10, 1936.

"Newark was two degrees off," he says, sounding a little disappointed, as if his favorite pitcher just missed out making the Hall of Fame. And it’s not just Newark in the big degrees league. "Look at Seaside Heights, where it was 100. On an average summer afternoon, it should be in the low 80s. Newark should be in mid to upper 80s. It’s extraordinary for summer, a remarkable anomaly."

And does it therefore mean ...? Robinson doesn’t hesitate: "No responsible scientist would say this is proof positive of global warming. But you can say the chance of more warm days has increased, as a result of human activity."

Human climate change is not all about getting warmer, but having more variability in the climate system, he explained. And we’ve had a lot of variability lately: excessive rain, flooding, snow. "

The impact of human activities is starting to become rather evident," he says.

Robinson, like any scientist worth his or her salt, refuses to veer from the facts.

Anthony Broccoli, director of the climate and environmental initiative at Rutgers, agrees. What we know is this: Global temperatures have risen one-and-a-half degrees over the last 100 years, with two-thirds happening in the last 40 years. In that sense, it’s not just a heat wave, he says.

"We can say global warming will make days like today happen more frequently. This is a harbinger of the heat that will happen in a warmer world. It’s all about the long-term trends."